Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
