Just eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
